Did I Say the Singularity is Near? Sorry, I Meant Here.
by Chris Wren
I’m kind of partial to the notion that if we’re able to conceive of the concept of a Technological/Information Singularity, then there’s a good chance we’re already inside one… I’m betting that date will be a kind of general milestone, smeared out over “the early 21st century”.
The systems required to maintain a global civilization are already growing complex beyond the ability of individuals or institutions to manage. Eventually, those systems will become complex beyond our comprehension. I think that’s where artificial intelligence is most likely to emerge: not in a lab, but out of the increasingly complex and autonomous management systems that will be running most of the world’s infrastructure for us in the next couple of decades.
Not sure what I think about this. I’m intrigued by the idea of a Singularity that spans a few decades - say from 2000 to 2030. It highlights the increasing complexity and connectivity of our technological systems. On the other hand, it voids the notion of the Singularity as a single moment in time - eg. December 12th, 2012. In any case, we will need to continually update and refine our definition and use of the Singularity as a helpful tool for understanding the current historical period.
One must also consider the technological and socioeconomic disparities that exist on Earth (which may be increasing, despite the ‘digital divide’ initiatives), and the subsequent realization that any single event or date that supposedly marks the Singularity could be highly localized to specific geographic locations and groups of people. Even if artificial intelligence emerges from global management networks or the Internet, its strongest impact will be on those with access to PCs and the Net. I agree that (much of) humanity is experiencing a period of rapid and ever-accelerating change, a trend that was increasingly apparent throughout the 20th century. It is impossible to keep up with the daily scientific and technological breakthroughs, social and political events, etc.
And I am increasingly convinced that history will regard the sudden emergence and almost intuitive adoption of the Internet in the mid-90s as a pivotal development along our path to - or through - the Singularity. Perhaps someone who has used the Internet heavily since 1995 has spent the last 10 years living in a kind of post-Singularity environment - an overwhelming experience of trying to pursue unlimited access to vast amounts of information (with exponentially increasing additions of new websites and data). Many researchers and writers loosely portray the post-Singularity world as a world of change, complexity and information that is beyond our comprehension. Indeed, those with the resources and willingness to pay attention may already be deep inside…
If you consider the experience of the Singularity on a personal level, Wren may be underestimating how far along we are in this period: “Eventually, those systems will become complex beyond our comprehension. ” It seems that many technological systems are already far beyond the comprehension of any single human.
via Posthuman Blues